FIO vs SAS
Fiorentina (home) vs Sassuolo · model confidence 80% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
FIO win 38.7% fair 2.58
Draw 24.5% fair 4.08
SAS win 36.8% fair 2.72
Expected Goals
FIO
1.52
—
1.50
SAS
| Over 2.5 goals | 58.3% | fair 1.72 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 41.7% | fair 2.40 |
| Both teams to score | 60.8% | fair 1.64 |
Most Likely Scores
| FIO 1-1 SAS | 11.1% | |
| FIO 2-1 SAS | 8.4% | |
| FIO 1-2 SAS | 8.4% | |
| FIO 1-0 SAS | 7.4% | |
| FIO 0-1 SAS | 7.3% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.8 | 7.3 | 5.5 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.4 | 11.1 | 8.4 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 8.4 | 6.4 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 4.3 | 3.2 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: FIO goals · Columns: SAS goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).