FIO vs TOR
Fiorentina (home) vs Torino · model confidence 75%
Match Outcome
FIO win 44.4% fair 2.25
Draw 24.7% fair 4.04
TOR win 30.9% fair 3.24
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 44.8% / 24.3% / 30.9%.
Expected Goals
FIO
1.62
—
1.30
TOR
| Over 2.5 goals | 55.9% | fair 1.79 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 44.1% | fair 2.27 |
| Both teams to score | 58.4% | fair 1.71 |
Most Likely Scores
| FIO 1-1 TOR | 11.4% | |
| FIO 2-1 TOR | 9.2% | |
| FIO 1-0 TOR | 8.7% | |
| FIO 1-2 TOR | 7.4% | |
| FIO 2-0 TOR | 7.0% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 7.0 | 4.6 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.7 | 11.4 | 7.4 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 9.2 | 6.0 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 5.0 | 3.2 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 2.0 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: FIO goals · Columns: TOR goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).