FIO vs UDI
Fiorentina (home) vs Udinese · model confidence 80% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
FIO win 41.2% fair 2.43
Draw 24.8% fair 4.03
UDI win 34.0% fair 2.94
Expected Goals
FIO
1.55
—
1.40
UDI
| Over 2.5 goals | 56.4% | fair 1.77 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 43.6% | fair 2.29 |
| Both teams to score | 59.2% | fair 1.69 |
Most Likely Scores
| FIO 1-1 UDI | 11.4% | |
| FIO 2-1 UDI | 8.8% | |
| FIO 1-0 UDI | 8.2% | |
| FIO 1-2 UDI | 8.0% | |
| FIO 0-1 UDI | 7.4% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 7.4 | 5.1 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.2 | 11.4 | 8.0 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 8.8 | 6.1 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 4.5 | 3.2 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: FIO goals · Columns: UDI goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).