FIO vs VEN
Fiorentina (home) vs Venezia · model confidence 74% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
FIO win 49.9% fair 2.01
Draw 24.4% fair 4.09
VEN win 25.7% fair 3.89
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 51.3% / 24.0% / 24.7%.
Expected Goals
FIO
1.70
—
1.11
VEN
| Over 2.5 goals | 53.3% | fair 1.88 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 46.7% | fair 2.14 |
| Both teams to score | 54.8% | fair 1.83 |
Most Likely Scores
| FIO 1-1 VEN | 11.3% | |
| FIO 1-0 VEN | 10.2% | |
| FIO 2-1 VEN | 9.7% | |
| FIO 2-0 VEN | 8.7% | |
| FIO 0-1 VEN | 6.7% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 6.7 | 3.7 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.2 | 11.3 | 6.3 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.7 | 9.7 | 5.4 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.0 | 5.5 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.3 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: FIO goals · Columns: VEN goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).