FRO vs ATA
Frosinone (home) vs Atalanta · model confidence 75% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
FRO win 31.1% fair 3.22
Draw 24.0% fair 4.17
ATA win 44.9% fair 2.22
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 29.1% / 23.5% / 47.4%.
Expected Goals
FRO
1.32
—
1.74
ATA
| Over 2.5 goals | 59.0% | fair 1.69 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 41.0% | fair 2.44 |
| Both teams to score | 60.4% | fair 1.66 |
Most Likely Scores
| FRO 1-1 ATA | 10.8% | |
| FRO 1-2 ATA | 9.4% | |
| FRO 0-1 ATA | 8.2% | |
| FRO 0-2 ATA | 7.1% | |
| FRO 2-1 ATA | 7.1% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 8.2 | 7.1 | 4.1 | 1.8 | 0.9 |
| 1 | 6.2 | 10.8 | 9.4 | 5.4 | 2.4 | 1.1 |
| 2 | 4.1 | 7.1 | 6.2 | 3.6 | 1.6 | 0.8 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 3.1 | 2.7 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: FRO goals · Columns: ATA goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).