FRO vs BOL
Frosinone (home) vs Bologna · model confidence 75% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
FRO win 33.7% fair 2.97
Draw 25.5% fair 3.93
BOL win 40.8% fair 2.45
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 32.2% / 25.2% / 42.6%.
Expected Goals
FRO
1.28
—
1.51
BOL
| Over 2.5 goals | 52.7% | fair 1.90 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 47.3% | fair 2.11 |
| Both teams to score | 56.1% | fair 1.78 |
Most Likely Scores
| FRO 1-1 BOL | 11.9% | |
| FRO 0-1 BOL | 9.3% | |
| FRO 1-2 BOL | 9.0% | |
| FRO 1-0 BOL | 7.9% | |
| FRO 2-1 BOL | 7.6% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 9.3 | 7.0 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 7.9 | 11.9 | 9.0 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 5.0 | 7.6 | 5.7 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 3.2 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: FRO goals · Columns: BOL goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).