FRO vs CAG
Frosinone (home) vs Cagliari · model confidence 74% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
FRO win 41.2% fair 2.43
Draw 25.7% fair 3.89
CAG win 33.1% fair 3.02
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 41.1% / 25.4% / 33.5%.
Expected Goals
FRO
1.46
—
1.29
CAG
| Over 2.5 goals | 51.8% | fair 1.93 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 48.2% | fair 2.08 |
| Both teams to score | 55.6% | fair 1.80 |
Most Likely Scores
| FRO 1-1 CAG | 12.0% | |
| FRO 1-0 CAG | 9.3% | |
| FRO 2-1 CAG | 8.8% | |
| FRO 0-1 CAG | 8.3% | |
| FRO 1-2 CAG | 7.8% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 8.3 | 5.3 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.3 | 12.0 | 7.8 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 8.8 | 5.7 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 4.3 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: FRO goals · Columns: CAG goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).