FRO vs COM
Frosinone (home) vs Como · model confidence 64%
Match Outcome
FRO win 22.9% fair 4.37
Draw 23.4% fair 4.28
COM win 53.8% fair 1.86
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is low (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 17.8% / 22.4% / 59.8%.
Expected Goals
FRO
0.89
—
1.84
COM
| Over 2.5 goals | 51.5% | fair 1.94 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 48.5% | fair 2.06 |
| Both teams to score | 49.7% | fair 2.01 |
Most Likely Scores
| FRO 0-1 COM | 12.0% | |
| FRO 0-2 COM | 11.0% | |
| FRO 1-1 COM | 10.7% | |
| FRO 1-2 COM | 9.8% | |
| FRO 0-3 COM | 6.8% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 12.0 | 11.0 | 6.8 | 3.1 | 1.6 |
| 1 | 5.8 | 10.7 | 9.8 | 6.0 | 2.8 | 1.5 |
| 2 | 2.6 | 4.8 | 4.4 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 0.8 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: FRO goals · Columns: COM goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).