FRO vs FIO
Frosinone (home) vs Fiorentina · model confidence 74% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
FRO win 43.5% fair 2.30
Draw 24.7% fair 4.04
FIO win 31.8% fair 3.15
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 43.7% / 24.3% / 31.9%.
Expected Goals
FRO
1.61
—
1.34
FIO
| Over 2.5 goals | 56.5% | fair 1.77 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 43.5% | fair 2.30 |
| Both teams to score | 59.0% | fair 1.69 |
Most Likely Scores
| FRO 1-1 FIO | 11.3% | |
| FRO 2-1 FIO | 9.1% | |
| FRO 1-0 FIO | 8.4% | |
| FRO 1-2 FIO | 7.6% | |
| FRO 0-1 FIO | 7.0% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 7.0 | 4.7 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.4 | 11.3 | 7.6 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 9.1 | 6.1 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 4.9 | 3.3 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 2.0 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: FRO goals · Columns: FIO goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).