FRO vs GEN
Frosinone (home) vs Genoa · model confidence 74% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
FRO win 42.7% fair 2.34
Draw 25.6% fair 3.91
GEN win 31.7% fair 3.16
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 42.9% / 25.3% / 31.8%.
Expected Goals
FRO
1.50
—
1.25
GEN
| Over 2.5 goals | 51.9% | fair 1.93 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 48.1% | fair 2.08 |
| Both teams to score | 55.5% | fair 1.80 |
Most Likely Scores
| FRO 1-1 GEN | 12.0% | |
| FRO 1-0 GEN | 9.6% | |
| FRO 2-1 GEN | 9.0% | |
| FRO 0-1 GEN | 8.0% | |
| FRO 1-2 GEN | 7.5% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 8.0 | 5.0 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.6 | 12.0 | 7.5 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 9.0 | 5.6 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 4.5 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: FRO goals · Columns: GEN goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).