FRO vs INT
Frosinone (home) vs Inter Milan · model confidence 71%
Match Outcome
FRO win 17.1% fair 5.85
Draw 18.9% fair 5.29
INT win 64.0% fair 1.56
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 11.9% / 17.2% / 71.0%.
Expected Goals
FRO
0.86
—
2.37
INT
| Over 2.5 goals | 62.6% | fair 1.60 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 37.4% | fair 2.68 |
| Both teams to score | 52.3% | fair 1.91 |
Most Likely Scores
| FRO 0-2 INT | 11.1% | |
| FRO 1-2 INT | 9.6% | |
| FRO 0-1 INT | 9.4% | |
| FRO 0-3 INT | 8.8% | |
| FRO 1-1 INT | 8.1% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.0 | 9.4 | 11.1 | 8.8 | 5.2 | 3.9 |
| 1 | 3.4 | 8.1 | 9.6 | 7.5 | 4.5 | 3.4 |
| 2 | 1.5 | 3.5 | 4.1 | 3.2 | 1.9 | 1.4 |
| 3 | 0.4 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: FRO goals · Columns: INT goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).