FRO vs INT
Frosinone (home) vs Inter Milan · model confidence 77% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
FRO win 17.7% fair 5.66
Draw 18.0% fair 5.55
INT win 64.3% fair 1.56
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 13.9% / 16.6% / 69.5%.
Expected Goals
FRO
1.09
—
2.58
INT
| Over 2.5 goals | 70.9% | fair 1.41 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 29.1% | fair 3.43 |
| Both teams to score | 61.2% | fair 1.63 |
Most Likely Scores
| FRO 1-2 INT | 9.2% | |
| FRO 0-2 INT | 8.5% | |
| FRO 1-3 INT | 8.0% | |
| FRO 0-3 INT | 7.3% | |
| FRO 1-1 INT | 7.2% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.6 | 6.6 | 8.5 | 7.3 | 4.7 | 4.0 |
| 1 | 2.8 | 7.2 | 9.2 | 8.0 | 5.1 | 4.4 |
| 2 | 1.5 | 3.9 | 5.0 | 4.3 | 2.8 | 2.4 |
| 3 | 0.5 | 1.4 | 1.8 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.9 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 |
| 5+ | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
Rows: FRO goals · Columns: INT goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).