FRO vs JUV
Frosinone (home) vs Juventus · model confidence 68%
Match Outcome
FRO win 23.7% fair 4.22
Draw 24.3% fair 4.12
JUV win 52.0% fair 1.92
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 19.5% / 23.6% / 56.9%.
Expected Goals
FRO
0.90
—
1.73
JUV
| Over 2.5 goals | 49.0% | fair 2.04 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 51.0% | fair 1.96 |
| Both teams to score | 48.9% | fair 2.04 |
Most Likely Scores
| FRO 0-1 JUV | 12.4% | |
| FRO 1-1 JUV | 11.2% | |
| FRO 0-2 JUV | 10.8% | |
| FRO 1-2 JUV | 9.7% | |
| FRO 0-0 JUV | 7.2% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.2 | 12.4 | 10.8 | 6.2 | 2.7 | 1.3 |
| 1 | 6.5 | 11.2 | 9.7 | 5.6 | 2.4 | 1.2 |
| 2 | 2.9 | 5.1 | 4.4 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 0.9 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: FRO goals · Columns: JUV goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).