FRO vs JUV
Frosinone (home) vs Juventus · model confidence 67% · pregame locked (08-23 · FT 0-1 )
Probabilities below are the pregame model (ratings as they stood before kickoff) — the same numbers used on Fixtures and Over 2.5 calibration. They are not recomputed with today’s live ratings.
Match Outcome
FRO win 23.9% fair 4.18
Draw 23.8% fair 4.20
JUV win 52.2% fair 1.91
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 19.6% / 23.1% / 57.4%.
Expected Goals
FRO
0.94
—
1.79
JUV
| Over 2.5 goals | 51.5% | fair 1.94 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 48.5% | fair 2.06 |
| Both teams to score | 50.9% | fair 1.97 |
Most Likely Scores
| FRO 0-1 JUV | 11.6% | |
| FRO 1-1 JUV | 11.0% | |
| FRO 0-2 JUV | 10.4% | |
| FRO 1-2 JUV | 9.8% | |
| FRO 0-0 JUV | 6.5% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 11.6 | 10.4 | 6.2 | 2.8 | 1.4 |
| 1 | 6.1 | 11.0 | 9.8 | 5.9 | 2.6 | 1.3 |
| 2 | 2.9 | 5.2 | 4.6 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 0.9 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: FRO goals · Columns: JUV goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).