FRO vs LAZ
Frosinone (home) vs Lazio · model confidence 75% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
FRO win 29.5% fair 3.38
Draw 25.2% fair 3.96
LAZ win 45.2% fair 2.21
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 27.4% / 24.9% / 47.7%.
Expected Goals
FRO
1.14
—
1.59
LAZ
| Over 2.5 goals | 51.3% | fair 1.95 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 48.7% | fair 2.06 |
| Both teams to score | 54.1% | fair 1.85 |
Most Likely Scores
| FRO 1-1 LAZ | 11.8% | |
| FRO 0-1 LAZ | 10.4% | |
| FRO 1-2 LAZ | 9.4% | |
| FRO 0-2 LAZ | 8.2% | |
| FRO 1-0 LAZ | 7.4% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 10.4 | 8.2 | 4.4 | 1.7 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 7.4 | 11.8 | 9.4 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 4.2 | 6.7 | 5.4 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 2.6 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: FRO goals · Columns: LAZ goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).