FRO vs LAZ
Frosinone (home) vs Lazio · model confidence 66%
Match Outcome
FRO win 30.5% fair 3.28
Draw 26.6% fair 3.75
LAZ win 42.9% fair 2.33
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 27.6% / 26.5% / 45.9%.
Expected Goals
FRO
1.05
—
1.43
LAZ
| Over 2.5 goals | 45.0% | fair 2.22 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 55.0% | fair 1.82 |
| Both teams to score | 49.4% | fair 2.03 |
Most Likely Scores
| FRO 1-1 LAZ | 12.6% | |
| FRO 0-1 LAZ | 12.0% | |
| FRO 1-2 LAZ | 9.0% | |
| FRO 1-0 LAZ | 8.8% | |
| FRO 0-2 LAZ | 8.6% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.4 | 12.0 | 8.6 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.8 | 12.6 | 9.0 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.6 | 6.6 | 4.7 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 2.3 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: FRO goals · Columns: LAZ goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).