FRO vs LEC
Frosinone (home) vs Lecce · model confidence 74% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
FRO win 44.7% fair 2.24
Draw 25.8% fair 3.87
LEC win 29.5% fair 3.40
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 45.2% / 25.6% / 29.2%.
Expected Goals
FRO
1.50
—
1.15
LEC
| Over 2.5 goals | 49.6% | fair 2.02 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 50.4% | fair 1.98 |
| Both teams to score | 53.2% | fair 1.88 |
Most Likely Scores
| FRO 1-1 LEC | 12.2% | |
| FRO 1-0 LEC | 10.5% | |
| FRO 2-1 LEC | 9.1% | |
| FRO 0-1 LEC | 8.1% | |
| FRO 2-0 LEC | 7.9% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 8.1 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.5 | 12.2 | 7.0 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 9.1 | 5.3 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 4.6 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: FRO goals · Columns: LEC goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).