FRO vs LEC
Frosinone (home) vs Lecce · model confidence 66%
Match Outcome
FRO win 36.9% fair 2.71
Draw 28.2% fair 3.55
LEC win 34.9% fair 2.87
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 35.6% / 28.5% / 35.9%.
Expected Goals
FRO
1.14
—
1.14
LEC
| Over 2.5 goals | 40.0% | fair 2.50 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 60.0% | fair 1.67 |
| Both teams to score | 46.4% | fair 2.16 |
Most Likely Scores
| FRO 1-1 LEC | 13.3% | |
| FRO 0-1 LEC | 11.7% | |
| FRO 1-0 LEC | 11.6% | |
| FRO 0-0 LEC | 10.2% | |
| FRO 1-2 LEC | 7.6% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.2 | 11.7 | 6.7 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.6 | 13.3 | 7.6 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 7.6 | 4.3 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 2.9 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: FRO goals · Columns: LEC goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).