FRO vs MIL
Frosinone (home) vs AC Milan · model confidence 75% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
FRO win 25.2% fair 3.96
Draw 23.4% fair 4.28
MIL win 51.4% fair 1.95
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 22.4% / 22.7% / 54.9%.
Expected Goals
FRO
1.10
—
1.85
MIL
| Over 2.5 goals | 56.4% | fair 1.77 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 43.6% | fair 2.29 |
| Both teams to score | 56.1% | fair 1.78 |
Most Likely Scores
| FRO 1-1 MIL | 10.7% | |
| FRO 1-2 MIL | 9.9% | |
| FRO 0-1 MIL | 9.7% | |
| FRO 0-2 MIL | 9.0% | |
| FRO 1-3 MIL | 6.1% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 9.7 | 9.0 | 5.5 | 2.5 | 1.3 |
| 1 | 5.8 | 10.7 | 9.9 | 6.1 | 2.8 | 1.5 |
| 2 | 3.2 | 5.9 | 5.4 | 3.3 | 1.5 | 0.8 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 2.1 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: FRO goals · Columns: MIL goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).