FRO vs MON
Frosinone (home) vs Monza · model confidence 68% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
FRO win 45.9% fair 2.18
Draw 23.9% fair 4.19
MON win 30.2% fair 3.31
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 46.8% / 23.1% / 30.1%.
Expected Goals
FRO
1.77
—
1.38
MON
| Over 2.5 goals | 61.1% | fair 1.64 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 38.9% | fair 2.57 |
| Both teams to score | 62.2% | fair 1.61 |
Most Likely Scores
| FRO 1-1 MON | 10.4% | |
| FRO 2-1 MON | 9.3% | |
| FRO 1-0 MON | 7.6% | |
| FRO 1-2 MON | 7.2% | |
| FRO 2-0 MON | 6.7% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.3 | 5.9 | 4.1 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.6 | 10.4 | 7.2 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 9.3 | 6.4 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 5.5 | 3.8 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.4 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.9 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: FRO goals · Columns: MON goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).