FRO vs NAP
Frosinone (home) vs Napoli · model confidence 76% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
FRO win 25.7% fair 3.89
Draw 23.5% fair 4.26
NAP win 50.8% fair 1.97
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 23.0% / 22.9% / 54.1%.
Expected Goals
FRO
1.11
—
1.83
NAP
| Over 2.5 goals | 56.3% | fair 1.77 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 43.7% | fair 2.29 |
| Both teams to score | 56.4% | fair 1.77 |
Most Likely Scores
| FRO 1-1 NAP | 10.7% | |
| FRO 1-2 NAP | 9.8% | |
| FRO 0-1 NAP | 9.7% | |
| FRO 0-2 NAP | 8.8% | |
| FRO 1-3 NAP | 6.0% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 9.7 | 8.8 | 5.4 | 2.5 | 1.3 |
| 1 | 5.9 | 10.7 | 9.8 | 6.0 | 2.7 | 1.4 |
| 2 | 3.3 | 6.0 | 5.5 | 3.3 | 1.5 | 0.8 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 2.2 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: FRO goals · Columns: NAP goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).