FRO vs PAR
Frosinone (home) vs Parma · model confidence 66%
Match Outcome
FRO win 36.2% fair 2.76
Draw 28.9% fair 3.45
PAR win 34.9% fair 2.87
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 34.7% / 29.4% / 35.8%.
Expected Goals
FRO
1.07
—
1.09
PAR
| Over 2.5 goals | 36.7% | fair 2.73 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 63.3% | fair 1.58 |
| Both teams to score | 43.6% | fair 2.29 |
Most Likely Scores
| FRO 1-1 PAR | 13.4% | |
| FRO 0-1 PAR | 12.6% | |
| FRO 1-0 PAR | 12.3% | |
| FRO 0-0 PAR | 11.5% | |
| FRO 1-2 PAR | 7.3% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.5 | 12.6 | 6.9 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.3 | 13.4 | 7.3 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 7.2 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 2.6 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: FRO goals · Columns: PAR goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).