FRO vs PAR
Frosinone (home) vs Parma · model confidence 74% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
FRO win 44.4% fair 2.25
Draw 26.8% fair 3.74
PAR win 28.8% fair 3.47
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 44.8% / 26.7% / 28.4%.
Expected Goals
FRO
1.40
—
1.06
PAR
| Over 2.5 goals | 44.7% | fair 2.23 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 55.3% | fair 1.81 |
| Both teams to score | 49.3% | fair 2.03 |
Most Likely Scores
| FRO 1-1 PAR | 12.7% | |
| FRO 1-0 PAR | 11.9% | |
| FRO 0-1 PAR | 9.0% | |
| FRO 2-1 PAR | 8.9% | |
| FRO 0-0 PAR | 8.5% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.5 | 9.0 | 4.8 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.9 | 12.7 | 6.7 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 8.9 | 4.7 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 4.2 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: FRO goals · Columns: PAR goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).