FRO vs ROM
Frosinone (home) vs Roma · model confidence 76% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
FRO win 20.8% fair 4.81
Draw 21.0% fair 4.77
ROM win 58.2% fair 1.72
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 17.3% / 20.0% / 62.7%.
Expected Goals
FRO
1.04
—
2.15
ROM
| Over 2.5 goals | 61.7% | fair 1.62 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 38.3% | fair 2.61 |
| Both teams to score | 57.0% | fair 1.75 |
Most Likely Scores
| FRO 1-2 ROM | 9.9% | |
| FRO 0-2 ROM | 9.5% | |
| FRO 1-1 ROM | 9.2% | |
| FRO 0-1 ROM | 8.9% | |
| FRO 1-3 ROM | 7.1% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.1 | 8.9 | 9.5 | 6.8 | 3.7 | 2.4 |
| 1 | 4.3 | 9.2 | 9.9 | 7.1 | 3.8 | 2.5 |
| 2 | 2.2 | 4.8 | 5.1 | 3.7 | 2.0 | 1.3 |
| 3 | 0.8 | 1.7 | 1.8 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: FRO goals · Columns: ROM goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).