FRO vs SAS
Frosinone (home) vs Sassuolo · model confidence 66%
Match Outcome
FRO win 32.7% fair 3.05
Draw 26.0% fair 3.84
SAS win 41.2% fair 2.43
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 30.4% / 25.8% / 43.8%.
Expected Goals
FRO
1.18
—
1.47
SAS
| Over 2.5 goals | 49.3% | fair 2.03 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 50.7% | fair 1.97 |
| Both teams to score | 53.3% | fair 1.88 |
Most Likely Scores
| FRO 1-1 SAS | 12.3% | |
| FRO 0-1 SAS | 10.4% | |
| FRO 1-2 SAS | 9.0% | |
| FRO 1-0 SAS | 8.4% | |
| FRO 0-2 SAS | 7.6% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 10.4 | 7.6 | 3.7 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.4 | 12.3 | 9.0 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 7.2 | 5.3 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.8 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: FRO goals · Columns: SAS goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).