FRO vs TOR
Frosinone (home) vs Torino · model confidence 66%
Match Outcome
FRO win 37.3% fair 2.68
Draw 25.8% fair 3.87
TOR win 36.9% fair 2.71
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 36.1% / 25.5% / 38.4%.
Expected Goals
FRO
1.35
—
1.40
TOR
| Over 2.5 goals | 51.8% | fair 1.93 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 48.2% | fair 2.08 |
| Both teams to score | 55.8% | fair 1.79 |
Most Likely Scores
| FRO 1-1 TOR | 12.1% | |
| FRO 0-1 TOR | 9.0% | |
| FRO 1-0 TOR | 8.6% | |
| FRO 1-2 TOR | 8.5% | |
| FRO 2-1 TOR | 8.2% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 9.0 | 6.3 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.6 | 12.1 | 8.5 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 8.2 | 5.7 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 3.7 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: FRO goals · Columns: TOR goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).