FRO vs TOR
Frosinone (home) vs Torino · model confidence 74% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
FRO win 39.9% fair 2.51
Draw 24.4% fair 4.10
TOR win 35.7% fair 2.80
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 39.5% / 23.9% / 36.6%.
Expected Goals
FRO
1.57
—
1.50
TOR
| Over 2.5 goals | 59.4% | fair 1.68 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 40.6% | fair 2.46 |
| Both teams to score | 61.6% | fair 1.62 |
Most Likely Scores
| FRO 1-1 TOR | 10.9% | |
| FRO 2-1 TOR | 8.6% | |
| FRO 1-2 TOR | 8.2% | |
| FRO 1-0 TOR | 7.3% | |
| FRO 0-1 TOR | 6.9% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.6 | 6.9 | 5.2 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.3 | 10.9 | 8.2 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 8.6 | 6.4 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 4.5 | 3.4 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.8 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: FRO goals · Columns: TOR goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).