FRO vs UDI
Frosinone (home) vs Udinese · model confidence 74% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
FRO win 41.3% fair 2.42
Draw 24.7% fair 4.05
UDI win 34.0% fair 2.94
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 41.2% / 24.3% / 34.6%.
Expected Goals
FRO
1.57
—
1.42
UDI
| Over 2.5 goals | 57.5% | fair 1.74 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 42.5% | fair 2.36 |
| Both teams to score | 60.1% | fair 1.66 |
Most Likely Scores
| FRO 1-1 UDI | 11.2% | |
| FRO 2-1 UDI | 8.8% | |
| FRO 1-2 UDI | 8.0% | |
| FRO 1-0 UDI | 7.9% | |
| FRO 0-1 UDI | 7.1% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0 | 7.1 | 5.1 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.9 | 11.2 | 8.0 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 8.8 | 6.3 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 4.6 | 3.3 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.8 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: FRO goals · Columns: UDI goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).