FRO vs VEN
Frosinone (home) vs Venezia · model confidence 56%
Match Outcome
FRO win 41.2% fair 2.43
Draw 27.0% fair 3.70
VEN win 31.7% fair 3.15
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is low (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 41.0% / 27.0% / 32.0%.
Expected Goals
FRO
1.33
—
1.14
VEN
| Over 2.5 goals | 44.9% | fair 2.23 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 55.1% | fair 1.81 |
| Both teams to score | 50.0% | fair 2.00 |
Most Likely Scores
| FRO 1-1 VEN | 12.8% | |
| FRO 1-0 VEN | 11.2% | |
| FRO 0-1 VEN | 9.7% | |
| FRO 2-1 VEN | 8.5% | |
| FRO 0-0 VEN | 8.5% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.5 | 9.7 | 5.5 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.2 | 12.8 | 7.3 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 8.5 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 3.8 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: FRO goals · Columns: VEN goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).