GEN vs ATA
Genoa (home) vs Atalanta · model confidence 81% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
GEN win 30.5% fair 3.28
Draw 25.0% fair 4.00
ATA win 44.5% fair 2.25
Expected Goals
GEN
1.22
—
1.59
ATA
| Over 2.5 goals | 53.3% | fair 1.88 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 46.7% | fair 2.14 |
| Both teams to score | 56.1% | fair 1.78 |
Most Likely Scores
| GEN 1-1 ATA | 11.7% | |
| GEN 0-1 ATA | 9.6% | |
| GEN 1-2 ATA | 9.3% | |
| GEN 0-2 ATA | 7.7% | |
| GEN 1-0 ATA | 7.3% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 9.6 | 7.7 | 4.1 | 1.6 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 7.3 | 11.7 | 9.3 | 4.9 | 2.0 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 4.4 | 7.1 | 5.7 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.9 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: GEN goals · Columns: ATA goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).