GEN vs BOL
Genoa (home) vs Bologna · model confidence 81% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
GEN win 33.1% fair 3.02
Draw 26.5% fair 3.77
BOL win 40.4% fair 2.48
Expected Goals
GEN
1.18
—
1.38
BOL
| Over 2.5 goals | 47.0% | fair 2.13 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 53.0% | fair 1.89 |
| Both teams to score | 51.8% | fair 1.93 |
Most Likely Scores
| GEN 1-1 BOL | 12.6% | |
| GEN 0-1 BOL | 10.7% | |
| GEN 1-0 BOL | 9.1% | |
| GEN 1-2 BOL | 8.7% | |
| GEN 0-0 BOL | 7.8% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.8 | 10.7 | 7.4 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.1 | 12.6 | 8.7 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.4 | 7.4 | 5.1 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 2.9 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: GEN goals · Columns: BOL goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).