GEN vs CAG
Genoa (home) vs Cagliari · model confidence 81% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
GEN win 40.6% fair 2.46
Draw 26.8% fair 3.74
CAG win 32.6% fair 3.06
Expected Goals
GEN
1.34
—
1.18
CAG
| Over 2.5 goals | 46.3% | fair 2.16 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 53.7% | fair 1.86 |
| Both teams to score | 51.2% | fair 1.95 |
Most Likely Scores
| GEN 1-1 CAG | 12.7% | |
| GEN 1-0 CAG | 10.7% | |
| GEN 0-1 CAG | 9.5% | |
| GEN 2-1 CAG | 8.5% | |
| GEN 0-0 CAG | 8.0% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.0 | 9.5 | 5.6 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.7 | 12.7 | 7.5 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 8.5 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 3.8 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: GEN goals · Columns: CAG goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).