GEN vs COM
Genoa (home) vs Como · model confidence 74%
Match Outcome
GEN win 26.8% fair 3.73
Draw 24.6% fair 4.06
COM win 48.6% fair 2.06
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 24.0% / 24.2% / 51.8%.
Expected Goals
GEN
1.06
—
1.68
COM
| Over 2.5 goals | 51.7% | fair 1.94 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 48.3% | fair 2.07 |
| Both teams to score | 53.3% | fair 1.88 |
Most Likely Scores
| GEN 1-1 COM | 11.5% | |
| GEN 0-1 COM | 10.8% | |
| GEN 1-2 COM | 9.7% | |
| GEN 0-2 COM | 9.1% | |
| GEN 1-0 COM | 6.9% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 10.8 | 9.1 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 1.0 |
| 1 | 6.9 | 11.5 | 9.7 | 5.4 | 2.3 | 1.0 |
| 2 | 3.6 | 6.1 | 5.1 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 2.2 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: GEN goals · Columns: COM goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).