GEN vs FIO
Genoa (home) vs Fiorentina · model confidence 75%
Match Outcome
GEN win 43.1% fair 2.32
Draw 25.9% fair 3.86
FIO win 31.0% fair 3.23
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 43.3% / 25.7% / 31.0%.
Expected Goals
GEN
1.47
—
1.20
FIO
| Over 2.5 goals | 49.8% | fair 2.01 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 50.2% | fair 1.99 |
| Both teams to score | 53.7% | fair 1.86 |
Most Likely Scores
| GEN 1-1 FIO | 12.2% | |
| GEN 1-0 FIO | 10.2% | |
| GEN 2-1 FIO | 9.0% | |
| GEN 0-1 FIO | 8.3% | |
| GEN 2-0 FIO | 7.5% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 8.3 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.2 | 12.2 | 7.3 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 9.0 | 5.4 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 4.4 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: GEN goals · Columns: FIO goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).