GEN vs FRO
Genoa (home) vs Frosinone · model confidence 66%
Match Outcome
GEN win 48.9% fair 2.04
Draw 25.6% fair 3.90
FRO win 25.5% fair 3.93
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 50.7% / 25.3% / 24.1%.
Expected Goals
GEN
1.57
—
1.00
FRO
| Over 2.5 goals | 47.5% | fair 2.11 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 52.5% | fair 1.90 |
| Both teams to score | 50.1% | fair 2.00 |
Most Likely Scores
| GEN 1-1 FRO | 12.0% | |
| GEN 1-0 FRO | 12.0% | |
| GEN 2-1 FRO | 9.4% | |
| GEN 2-0 FRO | 9.4% | |
| GEN 0-1 FRO | 7.6% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 7.6 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.0 | 12.0 | 6.0 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.4 | 9.4 | 4.7 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.9 | 5.0 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: GEN goals · Columns: FRO goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).