GEN vs INT
Genoa (home) vs Inter Milan · model confidence 84% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
GEN win 17.0% fair 5.87
Draw 18.8% fair 5.31
INT win 64.1% fair 1.56
Expected Goals
GEN
1.00
—
2.36
INT
| Over 2.5 goals | 65.3% | fair 1.53 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 34.7% | fair 2.88 |
| Both teams to score | 57.3% | fair 1.75 |
Most Likely Scores
| GEN 1-2 INT | 9.7% | |
| GEN 0-2 INT | 9.7% | |
| GEN 1-1 INT | 8.2% | |
| GEN 0-1 INT | 8.2% | |
| GEN 1-3 INT | 7.6% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.5 | 8.2 | 9.7 | 7.6 | 4.5 | 3.4 |
| 1 | 3.5 | 8.2 | 9.7 | 7.6 | 4.5 | 3.4 |
| 2 | 1.7 | 4.1 | 4.8 | 3.8 | 2.3 | 1.7 |
| 3 | 0.6 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.6 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: GEN goals · Columns: INT goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).