GEN vs JUV
Genoa (home) vs Juventus · model confidence 82% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
GEN win 26.7% fair 3.75
Draw 25.4% fair 3.94
JUV win 48.0% fair 2.09
Expected Goals
GEN
1.03
—
1.58
JUV
| Over 2.5 goals | 48.5% | fair 2.06 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 51.5% | fair 1.94 |
| Both teams to score | 51.1% | fair 1.96 |
Most Likely Scores
| GEN 1-1 JUV | 12.0% | |
| GEN 0-1 JUV | 11.6% | |
| GEN 1-2 JUV | 9.4% | |
| GEN 0-2 JUV | 9.1% | |
| GEN 1-0 JUV | 7.6% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.3 | 11.6 | 9.1 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 7.6 | 12.0 | 9.4 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 3.9 | 6.2 | 4.9 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 2.1 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: GEN goals · Columns: JUV goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).