GEN vs JUV
Genoa (home) vs Juventus · model confidence 78%
Match Outcome
GEN win 28.1% fair 3.56
Draw 25.4% fair 3.94
JUV win 46.5% fair 2.15
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 26.0% / 25.2% / 48.8%.
Expected Goals
GEN
1.08
—
1.57
JUV
| Over 2.5 goals | 49.4% | fair 2.02 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 50.6% | fair 1.98 |
| Both teams to score | 52.3% | fair 1.91 |
Most Likely Scores
| GEN 1-1 JUV | 12.0% | |
| GEN 0-1 JUV | 11.1% | |
| GEN 1-2 JUV | 9.4% | |
| GEN 0-2 JUV | 8.7% | |
| GEN 1-0 JUV | 7.6% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 11.1 | 8.7 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 7.6 | 12.0 | 9.4 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 4.1 | 6.4 | 5.1 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 2.3 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: GEN goals · Columns: JUV goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).