GEN vs LAZ
Genoa (home) vs Lazio · model confidence 81% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
GEN win 27.9% fair 3.58
Draw 25.6% fair 3.91
LAZ win 46.4% fair 2.15
Expected Goals
GEN
1.07
—
1.54
LAZ
| Over 2.5 goals | 48.5% | fair 2.06 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 51.5% | fair 1.94 |
| Both teams to score | 51.6% | fair 1.94 |
Most Likely Scores
| GEN 1-1 LAZ | 12.1% | |
| GEN 0-1 LAZ | 11.3% | |
| GEN 1-2 LAZ | 9.3% | |
| GEN 0-2 LAZ | 8.8% | |
| GEN 1-0 LAZ | 7.8% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.3 | 11.3 | 8.8 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 7.8 | 12.1 | 9.3 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 4.2 | 6.5 | 5.0 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 2.3 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: GEN goals · Columns: LAZ goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).