GEN vs LEC
Genoa (home) vs Lecce · model confidence 80% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
GEN win 44.1% fair 2.27
Draw 26.9% fair 3.71
LEC win 29.0% fair 3.45
Expected Goals
GEN
1.38
—
1.06
LEC
| Over 2.5 goals | 44.1% | fair 2.27 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 55.9% | fair 1.79 |
| Both teams to score | 48.9% | fair 2.04 |
Most Likely Scores
| GEN 1-1 LEC | 12.7% | |
| GEN 1-0 LEC | 12.0% | |
| GEN 0-1 LEC | 9.2% | |
| GEN 2-1 LEC | 8.8% | |
| GEN 0-0 LEC | 8.7% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.7 | 9.2 | 4.9 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.0 | 12.7 | 6.7 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.3 | 8.8 | 4.7 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 4.1 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: GEN goals · Columns: LEC goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).