GEN vs MIL
Genoa (home) vs AC Milan · model confidence 82% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
GEN win 24.6% fair 4.06
Draw 24.4% fair 4.09
MIL win 51.0% fair 1.96
Expected Goals
GEN
1.01
—
1.69
MIL
| Over 2.5 goals | 50.6% | fair 1.97 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 49.4% | fair 2.03 |
| Both teams to score | 51.9% | fair 1.93 |
Most Likely Scores
| GEN 1-1 MIL | 11.5% | |
| GEN 0-1 MIL | 11.4% | |
| GEN 1-2 MIL | 9.7% | |
| GEN 0-2 MIL | 9.6% | |
| GEN 1-0 MIL | 6.8% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 11.4 | 9.6 | 5.4 | 2.3 | 1.1 |
| 1 | 6.8 | 11.5 | 9.7 | 5.5 | 2.3 | 1.1 |
| 2 | 3.4 | 5.8 | 4.9 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 2.0 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: GEN goals · Columns: MIL goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).