GEN vs MIL
Genoa (home) vs AC Milan · model confidence 78%
Match Outcome
GEN win 28.6% fair 3.50
Draw 25.5% fair 3.93
MIL win 46.0% fair 2.18
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 26.6% / 25.2% / 48.2%.
Expected Goals
GEN
1.09
—
1.56
MIL
| Over 2.5 goals | 49.5% | fair 2.02 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 50.5% | fair 1.98 |
| Both teams to score | 52.5% | fair 1.90 |
Most Likely Scores
| GEN 1-1 MIL | 12.0% | |
| GEN 0-1 MIL | 11.0% | |
| GEN 1-2 MIL | 9.4% | |
| GEN 0-2 MIL | 8.6% | |
| GEN 1-0 MIL | 7.7% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 11.0 | 8.6 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 7.7 | 12.0 | 9.4 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 4.2 | 6.6 | 5.1 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 2.4 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: GEN goals · Columns: MIL goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).