GEN vs MON
Genoa (home) vs Monza · model confidence 75% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
GEN win 45.4% fair 2.20
Draw 24.7% fair 4.05
MON win 29.9% fair 3.35
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 46.0% / 24.3% / 29.7%.
Expected Goals
GEN
1.63
—
1.27
MON
| Over 2.5 goals | 55.4% | fair 1.81 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 44.6% | fair 2.24 |
| Both teams to score | 57.8% | fair 1.73 |
Most Likely Scores
| GEN 1-1 MON | 11.4% | |
| GEN 2-1 MON | 9.3% | |
| GEN 1-0 MON | 9.0% | |
| GEN 2-0 MON | 7.3% | |
| GEN 1-2 MON | 7.2% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 7.0 | 4.4 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.0 | 11.4 | 7.2 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 9.3 | 5.9 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 5.1 | 3.2 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 2.1 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: GEN goals · Columns: MON goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).