GEN vs NAP
Genoa (home) vs Napoli · model confidence 78% · pregame locked (08-22 · FT 0-2 )
Probabilities below are the pregame model (ratings as they stood before kickoff) — the same numbers used on Fixtures and Over 2.5 calibration. They are not recomputed with today’s live ratings.
Match Outcome
GEN win 27.6% fair 3.63
Draw 24.9% fair 4.02
NAP win 47.6% fair 2.10
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 25.4% / 24.6% / 50.0%.
Expected Goals
GEN
1.09
—
1.64
NAP
| Over 2.5 goals | 51.4% | fair 1.94 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 48.6% | fair 2.06 |
| Both teams to score | 53.6% | fair 1.87 |
Most Likely Scores
| GEN 1-1 NAP | 11.7% | |
| GEN 0-1 NAP | 10.7% | |
| GEN 1-2 NAP | 9.6% | |
| GEN 0-2 NAP | 8.7% | |
| GEN 1-0 NAP | 7.1% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 10.7 | 8.7 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 0.9 |
| 1 | 7.1 | 11.7 | 9.6 | 5.2 | 2.1 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 3.9 | 6.4 | 5.2 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 2.3 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: GEN goals · Columns: NAP goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).