GEN vs NAP
Genoa (home) vs Napoli · model confidence 79%
Match Outcome
GEN win 26.0% fair 3.85
Draw 24.7% fair 4.05
NAP win 49.3% fair 2.03
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 23.7% / 24.4% / 51.9%.
Expected Goals
GEN
1.04
—
1.66
NAP
| Over 2.5 goals | 50.8% | fair 1.97 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 49.2% | fair 2.03 |
| Both teams to score | 52.5% | fair 1.91 |
Most Likely Scores
| GEN 1-1 NAP | 11.6% | |
| GEN 0-1 NAP | 11.1% | |
| GEN 1-2 NAP | 9.6% | |
| GEN 0-2 NAP | 9.2% | |
| GEN 1-0 NAP | 7.0% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 11.1 | 9.2 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 1.0 |
| 1 | 7.0 | 11.6 | 9.6 | 5.3 | 2.2 | 1.0 |
| 2 | 3.6 | 6.0 | 5.0 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 2.1 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: GEN goals · Columns: NAP goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).