GEN vs PAR
Genoa (home) vs Parma · model confidence 80% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
GEN win 43.7% fair 2.29
Draw 28.0% fair 3.57
PAR win 28.3% fair 3.53
Expected Goals
GEN
1.29
—
0.97
PAR
| Over 2.5 goals | 39.5% | fair 2.53 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 60.5% | fair 1.65 |
| Both teams to score | 45.1% | fair 2.22 |
Most Likely Scores
| GEN 1-0 PAR | 13.4% | |
| GEN 1-1 PAR | 13.0% | |
| GEN 0-0 PAR | 10.4% | |
| GEN 0-1 PAR | 10.1% | |
| GEN 2-0 PAR | 8.7% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.4 | 10.1 | 4.9 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.4 | 13.0 | 6.3 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.7 | 8.4 | 4.1 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 3.6 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: GEN goals · Columns: PAR goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).