GEN vs ROM
Genoa (home) vs Roma · model confidence 83% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
GEN win 20.2% fair 4.96
Draw 21.9% fair 4.56
ROM win 57.9% fair 1.73
Expected Goals
GEN
0.96
—
1.97
ROM
| Over 2.5 goals | 55.9% | fair 1.79 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 44.1% | fair 2.27 |
| Both teams to score | 53.0% | fair 1.89 |
Most Likely Scores
| GEN 0-1 ROM | 10.6% | |
| GEN 0-2 ROM | 10.4% | |
| GEN 1-1 ROM | 10.1% | |
| GEN 1-2 ROM | 9.9% | |
| GEN 0-3 ROM | 6.8% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 10.6 | 10.4 | 6.8 | 3.4 | 1.9 |
| 1 | 5.1 | 10.1 | 9.9 | 6.5 | 3.2 | 1.8 |
| 2 | 2.5 | 4.8 | 4.8 | 3.1 | 1.5 | 0.9 |
| 3 | 0.8 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: GEN goals · Columns: ROM goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).