GEN vs SAS
Genoa (home) vs Sassuolo · model confidence 81% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
GEN win 40.0% fair 2.50
Draw 24.8% fair 4.03
SAS win 35.2% fair 2.84
Expected Goals
GEN
1.51
—
1.43
SAS
| Over 2.5 goals | 56.3% | fair 1.78 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 43.7% | fair 2.29 |
| Both teams to score | 59.2% | fair 1.69 |
Most Likely Scores
| GEN 1-1 SAS | 11.4% | |
| GEN 2-1 SAS | 8.6% | |
| GEN 1-2 SAS | 8.1% | |
| GEN 1-0 SAS | 8.0% | |
| GEN 0-1 SAS | 7.5% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 7.5 | 5.4 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.0 | 11.4 | 8.1 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 8.6 | 6.2 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 4.4 | 3.1 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: GEN goals · Columns: SAS goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).