GEN vs TOR
Genoa (home) vs Torino · model confidence 80% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
GEN win 39.3% fair 2.54
Draw 25.3% fair 3.94
TOR win 35.3% fair 2.83
Expected Goals
GEN
1.45
—
1.38
TOR
| Over 2.5 goals | 53.7% | fair 1.86 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 46.3% | fair 2.16 |
| Both teams to score | 57.2% | fair 1.75 |
Most Likely Scores
| GEN 1-1 TOR | 11.8% | |
| GEN 1-0 TOR | 8.6% | |
| GEN 2-1 TOR | 8.6% | |
| GEN 0-1 TOR | 8.2% | |
| GEN 1-2 TOR | 8.1% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 8.2 | 5.6 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.6 | 11.8 | 8.1 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 8.6 | 5.9 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 4.1 | 2.8 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: GEN goals · Columns: TOR goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).