GEN vs TOR
Genoa (home) vs Torino · model confidence 75%
Match Outcome
GEN win 44.8% fair 2.23
Draw 24.8% fair 4.03
TOR win 30.4% fair 3.29
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 45.3% / 24.5% / 30.3%.
Expected Goals
GEN
1.61
—
1.27
TOR
| Over 2.5 goals | 55.0% | fair 1.82 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 45.0% | fair 2.22 |
| Both teams to score | 57.6% | fair 1.74 |
Most Likely Scores
| GEN 1-1 TOR | 11.5% | |
| GEN 2-1 TOR | 9.2% | |
| GEN 1-0 TOR | 9.0% | |
| GEN 1-2 TOR | 7.3% | |
| GEN 2-0 TOR | 7.3% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 7.1 | 4.5 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.0 | 11.5 | 7.3 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 9.2 | 5.9 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 5.0 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 2.0 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: GEN goals · Columns: TOR goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).