GEN vs UDI
Genoa (home) vs Udinese · model confidence 75%
Match Outcome
GEN win 37.4% fair 2.67
Draw 26.2% fair 3.81
UDI win 36.3% fair 2.75
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 36.7% / 26.1% / 37.2%.
Expected Goals
GEN
1.32
—
1.33
UDI
| Over 2.5 goals | 49.5% | fair 2.02 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 50.5% | fair 1.98 |
| Both teams to score | 53.9% | fair 1.85 |
Most Likely Scores
| GEN 1-1 UDI | 12.4% | |
| GEN 0-1 UDI | 9.4% | |
| GEN 1-0 UDI | 9.3% | |
| GEN 1-2 UDI | 8.3% | |
| GEN 2-1 UDI | 8.2% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 9.4 | 6.3 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.3 | 12.4 | 8.3 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 8.2 | 5.4 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 3.6 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: GEN goals · Columns: UDI goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).