GEN vs UDI
Genoa (home) vs Udinese · model confidence 80% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
GEN win 40.8% fair 2.45
Draw 25.6% fair 3.90
UDI win 33.6% fair 2.98
Expected Goals
GEN
1.45
—
1.30
UDI
| Over 2.5 goals | 51.9% | fair 1.93 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 48.1% | fair 2.08 |
| Both teams to score | 55.7% | fair 1.80 |
Most Likely Scores
| GEN 1-1 UDI | 12.1% | |
| GEN 1-0 UDI | 9.3% | |
| GEN 2-1 UDI | 8.7% | |
| GEN 0-1 UDI | 8.3% | |
| GEN 1-2 UDI | 7.8% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 8.3 | 5.4 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.3 | 12.1 | 7.8 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 8.7 | 5.7 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 4.2 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: GEN goals · Columns: UDI goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).