GEN vs VEN
Genoa (home) vs Venezia · model confidence 67%
Match Outcome
GEN win 48.8% fair 2.05
Draw 25.5% fair 3.92
VEN win 25.7% fair 3.89
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 50.4% / 25.2% / 24.4%.
Expected Goals
GEN
1.58
—
1.02
VEN
| Over 2.5 goals | 48.2% | fair 2.07 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 51.8% | fair 1.93 |
| Both teams to score | 50.8% | fair 1.97 |
Most Likely Scores
| GEN 1-1 VEN | 12.0% | |
| GEN 1-0 VEN | 11.7% | |
| GEN 2-1 VEN | 9.5% | |
| GEN 2-0 VEN | 9.3% | |
| GEN 0-1 VEN | 7.6% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.4 | 7.6 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.7 | 12.0 | 6.1 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.3 | 9.5 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.9 | 5.0 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: GEN goals · Columns: VEN goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).