INT vs ATA
Inter Milan (home) vs Atalanta · model confidence 85% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
INT win 64.4% fair 1.55
Draw 18.4% fair 5.44
ATA win 17.2% fair 5.81
Expected Goals
INT
2.50
—
1.16
ATA
| Over 2.5 goals | 70.7% | fair 1.41 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 29.3% | fair 3.41 |
| Both teams to score | 62.9% | fair 1.59 |
Most Likely Scores
| INT 2-1 ATA | 9.3% | |
| INT 2-0 ATA | 8.1% | |
| INT 3-1 ATA | 7.8% | |
| INT 1-1 ATA | 7.5% | |
| INT 3-0 ATA | 6.7% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.6 | 3.0 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 6.5 | 7.5 | 4.3 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 9.3 | 5.4 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 6.7 | 7.8 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 4.2 | 4.9 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 3.4 | 3.9 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Rows: INT goals · Columns: ATA goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).