INT vs BOL
Inter Milan (home) vs Bologna · model confidence 85% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
INT win 66.3% fair 1.51
Draw 18.3% fair 5.45
BOL win 15.4% fair 6.50
Expected Goals
INT
2.42
—
1.00
BOL
| Over 2.5 goals | 66.4% | fair 1.51 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 33.6% | fair 2.98 |
| Both teams to score | 57.6% | fair 1.74 |
Most Likely Scores
| INT 2-1 BOL | 9.6% | |
| INT 2-0 BOL | 9.6% | |
| INT 1-1 BOL | 7.9% | |
| INT 1-0 BOL | 7.9% | |
| INT 3-1 BOL | 7.7% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.3 | 3.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 7.9 | 7.9 | 4.0 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.6 | 9.6 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.7 | 7.7 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 4.7 | 4.7 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 3.6 | 3.6 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
Rows: INT goals · Columns: BOL goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).