INT vs CAG
Inter Milan (home) vs Cagliari · model confidence 84% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
INT win 72.6% fair 1.38
Draw 15.9% fair 6.30
CAG win 11.5% fair 8.71
Expected Goals
INT
2.65
—
0.84
CAG
| Over 2.5 goals | 67.5% | fair 1.48 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 32.5% | fair 3.08 |
| Both teams to score | 52.6% | fair 1.90 |
Most Likely Scores
| INT 2-0 CAG | 10.8% | |
| INT 3-0 CAG | 9.5% | |
| INT 2-1 CAG | 9.0% | |
| INT 1-0 CAG | 8.1% | |
| INT 3-1 CAG | 7.9% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.1 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 8.1 | 6.8 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 10.8 | 9.0 | 3.8 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 9.5 | 7.9 | 3.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 6.3 | 5.2 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 5.6 | 4.7 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: INT goals · Columns: CAG goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).