INT vs COM
Inter Milan (home) vs Como · model confidence 79%
Match Outcome
INT win 52.6% fair 1.90
Draw 22.8% fair 4.39
COM win 24.6% fair 4.06
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 54.1% / 22.2% / 23.7%.
Expected Goals
INT
1.92
—
1.20
COM
| Over 2.5 goals | 60.4% | fair 1.65 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 39.6% | fair 2.53 |
| Both teams to score | 59.7% | fair 1.67 |
Most Likely Scores
| INT 1-1 COM | 10.2% | |
| INT 2-1 COM | 9.8% | |
| INT 1-0 COM | 8.4% | |
| INT 2-0 COM | 8.1% | |
| INT 3-1 COM | 6.3% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 5.3 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.4 | 10.2 | 6.1 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 9.8 | 5.9 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.2 | 6.3 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.5 | 3.0 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 1.4 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: INT goals · Columns: COM goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).