INT vs FIO
Inter Milan (home) vs Fiorentina · model confidence 83% · pregame locked (10-25 · FT 2-1 )
Probabilities below are the pregame model (ratings as they stood before kickoff) — the same numbers used on Fixtures and Over 2.5 calibration. They are not recomputed with today’s live ratings.
Match Outcome
INT win 78.2% fair 1.28
Draw 12.6% fair 7.94
FIO win 9.2% fair 10.87
Expected Goals
INT
3.21
—
0.89
FIO
| Over 2.5 goals | 77.6% | fair 1.29 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 22.4% | fair 4.46 |
| Both teams to score | 56.4% | fair 1.77 |
Most Likely Scores
| INT 3-0 FIO | 9.2% | |
| INT 2-0 FIO | 8.6% | |
| INT 3-1 FIO | 8.1% | |
| INT 2-1 FIO | 7.6% | |
| INT 4-0 FIO | 7.4% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.7 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 5.3 | 4.7 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 8.6 | 7.6 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 9.2 | 8.1 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 7.4 | 6.5 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 9.1 | 8.1 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
Rows: INT goals · Columns: FIO goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).