EDGERATING
Methodology

INT vs FIO

Inter Milan (home) vs Fiorentina · model confidence 80%

Match Outcome

INT win 71.6% fair 1.40
Draw 16.2% fair 6.16
FIO win 12.2% fair 8.19

Expected Goals

INT 2.65 0.86 FIO
Over 2.5 goals68.1%fair 1.47
Under 2.5 goals31.9%fair 3.13
Both teams to score53.6%fair 1.87

Most Likely Scores

INT 2-0 FIO10.5%
INT 3-0 FIO9.3%
INT 2-1 FIO9.0%
INT 3-1 FIO8.0%
INT 1-0 FIO7.9%

Scoreline Matrix

012345+
0 3.0 2.6 1.1 0.3 0.1 0.0
1 7.9 6.8 2.9 0.8 0.2 0.0
2 10.5 9.0 3.9 1.1 0.2 0.0
3 9.3 8.0 3.4 1.0 0.2 0.0
4 6.1 5.3 2.3 0.6 0.1 0.0
5+ 5.5 4.7 2.0 0.6 0.1 0.0

Rows: INT goals · Columns: FIO goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).

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