INT vs FRO
Inter Milan (home) vs Frosinone · model confidence 77% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
INT win 75.3% fair 1.33
Draw 13.9% fair 7.17
FRO win 10.8% fair 9.25
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 80.5% / 11.9% / 7.6%.
Expected Goals
INT
3.10
—
0.91
FRO
| Over 2.5 goals | 76.2% | fair 1.31 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 23.8% | fair 4.20 |
| Both teams to score | 56.9% | fair 1.76 |
Most Likely Scores
| INT 3-0 FRO | 9.1% | |
| INT 2-0 FRO | 8.8% | |
| INT 3-1 FRO | 8.2% | |
| INT 2-1 FRO | 7.9% | |
| INT 4-0 FRO | 7.0% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 5.7 | 5.1 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 8.8 | 7.9 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 9.1 | 8.2 | 3.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 7.0 | 6.3 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 8.1 | 7.4 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
Rows: INT goals · Columns: FRO goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).