INT vs GEN
Inter Milan (home) vs Genoa · model confidence 84% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
INT win 75.1% fair 1.33
Draw 14.5% fair 6.87
GEN win 10.4% fair 9.63
Expected Goals
INT
2.84
—
0.83
GEN
| Over 2.5 goals | 70.9% | fair 1.41 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 29.1% | fair 3.44 |
| Both teams to score | 53.2% | fair 1.88 |
Most Likely Scores
| INT 2-0 GEN | 10.2% | |
| INT 3-0 GEN | 9.7% | |
| INT 2-1 GEN | 8.5% | |
| INT 3-1 GEN | 8.1% | |
| INT 1-0 GEN | 7.2% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.5 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 7.2 | 6.0 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 10.2 | 8.5 | 3.6 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 9.7 | 8.1 | 3.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 6.9 | 5.7 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 6.9 | 5.7 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: INT goals · Columns: GEN goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).