INT vs LAZ
Inter Milan (home) vs Lazio · model confidence 85% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
INT win 60.0% fair 1.67
Draw 20.4% fair 4.89
LAZ win 19.5% fair 5.12
Expected Goals
INT
2.20
—
1.12
LAZ
| Over 2.5 goals | 64.4% | fair 1.55 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 35.6% | fair 2.81 |
| Both teams to score | 59.9% | fair 1.67 |
Most Likely Scores
| INT 2-1 LAZ | 9.8% | |
| INT 1-1 LAZ | 8.9% | |
| INT 2-0 LAZ | 8.7% | |
| INT 1-0 LAZ | 8.0% | |
| INT 3-1 LAZ | 7.2% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.6 | 4.1 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.0 | 8.9 | 5.0 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.7 | 9.8 | 5.5 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 6.4 | 7.2 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.5 | 3.9 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 2.3 | 2.6 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
Rows: INT goals · Columns: LAZ goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).